SBS Interview Series | KCM Trade Australia Managing Director Jason Provides In-Depth Analysis Australian Dollar Outlook, Trend Forecast and Future Strategy

KCM Trade’s team of analysts, leveraging a unique global structure, has established a cross-time zone collaboration system that enables continuous 24-hour market monitoring. Local analysts focus on their respective markets, consistently delivering traders with the most timely and accurate market insights. Notably, Australia Managing Director Jason Lau’s accurate forecast of gold prices (successfully predicting a $1,000 increase in 2024—details available in KCM Trade Australia General Manager Jason Lau’s Accurate Market Forecast - KCM Trade) has been widely validated in the market.

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The team’s expertise is widely recognised by the media, with analysts frequently invited to serve as financial commentators. Recently, Jason was once again interviewed by SBS Chinese Media, where he shared his professional insights on the Australian Dollar's movements, providing traders with real-time insights and direction.

Jason: Focus on Federal Reserve Moves for Australian Dollar Outlook

In his SBS interview, KCM Trade Australia Managing Director Jason Lau pointed out that recent fluctuations in the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) reflect changes in global market sentiment. At present, the AUD/USD  is trading within a range of 0.63 and 0.64, with the Australian Dollar appreciating by approximately 2% this year. Jason noted:

Reasons for Recent AUD Fluctuations:

• "Liberation Day" remarks triggered panic selling, causing global stock markets to fall sharply.

• The Australian stock index ASX200 dropped over 300 points in a single day, and gold prices fell below $3,000.

• As a risk-sensitive currency, the Australian Dollar saw a significant decline.

• With tariffs delayed for 90 days, market sentiment rebounded, and the Australian Dollar quickly recovered to previous levels.

Historical Review of the Australian Dollar:

• March 2020: The AUD/USD fell below 0.60, quickly rebounding during the pandemic lockdown.

• April 2021: After rising to a peak of 0.80, it gradually declined to fluctuate between 0.63 and 0.69.

• Since Q4 2022: The interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) widened to over 1%, and after two Fed rate cuts by the end of 2024, the gap has narrowed to less than 0.5%.

• With the current interest rate differential shrinking, the lack of carry trade momentum means that the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar are unlikely to experience large one-sided fluctuations.

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Key Factors for Future Movements:

RBA Policy: The RBA's meeting on April 1 kept the interest rate at 4.1%, emphasising:

• Household financial pressure has eased (thanks to the February rate cut and decreasing inflation).

• Risks related to housing prices and borrowing should be monitored, as further rate cuts could trigger risks.

Market Expectations:

• The RBA may cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.6% on May 20.

• The Federal Reserve might begin cutting rates in June.

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Professional Analysis Team Safeguards Traders

KCM Trade’s analysis team, with their global perspective, rich market experience, and insights, provides traders with accurate market predictions to help navigate market volatility and seize investment opportunities.

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